Chris Uggen
Careers in Crime and Substance Use


Uggen, Christopher and Melissa Thompson. Draft. "Within-Person Changes in Illegal Earnings:
The Socioeconomic Determinants of Ill-Gotten Gains."


Theory. This quantitative study attempts to understand whether there is a relationship between drug use and crime. It builds from theories of both earnings determination and criminal behavior. Specifically, it applies economic and sociological models of earnings determination to the study of illegal income.

Design. This is a secondary data analysis of a large-scale social program conducted in the mid-1970s. Approximately five thousand unemployed addicts, criminal offenders, and youth dropouts were given the opportunity to participate in a subsidized job program that lasted between twelve and eighteen months. Data were collected for an additional thirty-six months.

Measurement. Participants were assigned to the job program on a randomized basis. Self-reported data were collected in nine-month intervals; respondents were asked to recall and report on three specific aspects of their lives for the previous nine months: drug use, arrest, and illegal earnings.

Data Analysis. The researchers use a fixed-effects model for their analysis, the purpose of which is to net out within-person differences. The unit of analysis is the person-month. The regression model was essentially a lengthy linear equation that has an intercept term for every person in the study.

Interpretation. The principle finding is that that the program seemed to decrease crime but not drug use. That is, the minimum wage supported employment program tended to reduce arrest but not cocaine or heroin use among persons who had recently completed drug treatment programs.

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